CORONA-SHUTDOWN: What effect do the measures have?

We are all massively affected by the Corona crisis. In order to slow down or to contain the spread (“Flatten the Curve”), drastic measures such as the closure of kindergartens and schools, contact bans and curfews have been decided. In the meantime, voices are already being raised asking for the end of the measures. The longing for our accustomed freedom is understandable and justified, but at this point in time it is probably premature.

A crucial question, however, is whether and to what extent the measures taken are having any effect at all? So far, in the public there are little or no comments on this. We at SALETELLIGENCE have addressed this question and developed a web-based tool to determine the effect of the measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

BASIC IDEA: EVENT STUDY

The basic idea is based on an event study, whereby the development of the number of infected persons actually observed (= officially confirmed cases) is compared with the expected curve of an unchecked spread. The difference between the two curves at a given point in time describes the impact of the containment measures.

Looking at the curve of infected persons in Germany, a bend in the curve on 20.03. is striking. The number of infected persons continues to rise, but not to the same extent as before. If one calculates the expected number of infected persons using real data up to 20.03, the result is the dotted line above. In our model, this corresponds to the course of an unchecked spread. If we now determine the difference between the two curves on the basis of the data up to 28 March, this describes the effect of the containment measures (“Flatten the Curve Effect”).

RESULTS FOR GERMANY

In Germany, roughly 57,000 cases were observed on 28 March, whereas the expected number without measures would have been more than 130,000 cases. The number of cases could therefore be reduced by more than 50% or, in other words: More than every second case could be avoided! It remains to be said that the measures for social distancing are effective in Germany!

The described reduction is due to the measures of the day-care and school closures (from 16.03.) as well as accompanying measures such as the increased home office activities of many companies. The additional contact bans or curfews imposed later (from 22.03.) lie outside our period under consideration (20.03.). It remains to be seen whether there will soon be another bend in the curve, i.e. whether these measures will have an additional effect.

We will take up these and other questions for Germany and other countries at regular intervals on our homepage or look at them in detail.

THE TOOL

In addition, we offer interested parties free access to our web-based analysis tool. This tool offers a daily updated database of Germany, Austria and Switzerland as well as other countries (EUIG5 and US).

Here you will find the link to the tool: https://covid19.saletelligence.de/